Baseball Statistics

22/08/08

How will the Hall of Fame look on baseball's steroid era?



A Hall of Fame "is a type of museum established for any a field of endeavour to honour individuals of noteworthy achievement in that field. In some cases, these halls of fame consist of actual halls or museums, which enshrine the honourees with sculptures, plaques, and displays of memorabilia."

There are a lot of these halls of fame around the world. A quick count on Wikipedia reveals well over 200. Anyone ever been to the Military Intelligence Hall of Fame? How about the Long Beach Motorsports Walk of Fame? My personal favorite is the Mining Hall of Fame. Who could forget the emotional enshrinement of Fred Bond back in 1988 - no one knew more about ore grinding than old Fred. I think it's safe to say that the proliferation of halls of fame has somewhat diminished the prestige of the term. I remember freaking out when I saw ads on the tube for the new FA Premiership Hall of Fame in London a few years back. I ranted to anyone that would listen about how ridiculous the concept was, that a league that had only recently begun couldn't possibly have a hall of fame. People got annoyed - I couldn't help myself.

There is still, however, plenty of status attached to the National Baseball Hall of Fame & Museum, which is located in tiny Cooperstown in upstate New York. Of all the North American shrines to sport, baseball's is the toughest to get into. Over 125 years of major league competition has yielded just 268 players elite enough to be dubbed baseball immortals. The Hall of Fame's first induction ceremony was in 1936, when five of the game's greatest names were enshrined: Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Christy Mathewson, Honus Wagner and Walter Johnson. Cy Young, winner of 511 games, had to wait another year before getting in. Lofty standards were set early on and have been fiercely protected by the electors, the Baseball Writers' Association of America, ever since.

On Sunday, two managers, two owners and a former commissioner will be inducted, but just one player received the 75 percent of votes necessary for enshrinement - Goose Gossage. The writers were tough on Goose, a former relief pitcher who was elected after over a decade on the ballot. The BBWAA have been even tougher on Jim Rice, one of the more feared hitters of the 1970s and 80s, who again failed to get the required ticks in January. If Jim Rice can't crack the Hall, it makes you wonder how the scribes will judge players from the so-called steroid era, many of whom will become eligible for induction in the coming years. The impending influx of alleged juicers was a hot topic during a recent baseball "town hall meeting" which was broadcast on the cable network HBO last week, and included several Hall of Famers, current players and members of the media.

The steroid era is, of course, synonymous with the home run. A multitude of players cheated by using performance-enhancing drugs, which played a role in corrupting the statistical pool by which players are ultimately judged. That's the great crime, because in baseball statistics are king, and when you lose the ability to compare today's players with yesterday's players, the soul of the game is damaged. Rice's numbers look small when compared with the gaudy statistics of today, which could be one reason why he hasn't been elected.

Steven Hirdt, the executive vice-president of the Elias Sports Bureau, guardians of baseball statistics, pointed out during the HBO broadcast that before 1994 there was just one season in baseball history with an average of more than two home runs hit per game. Since 1994, there has not been a season without an average of more than two home runs per game. The increase also coincides with smaller parks, better training, a lack of pitching quality and equipment improvements, changes to the game that also must be factored in to the increase in offense. How great a role the usage of performance-enhancing drugs played in the rise in offense compared with those other factors is difficult to quantify. However, playing in a smaller park against sub-par hurlers while swinging a maple bat is not against the spirit and the laws of the game - using performance-enhancing drugs is, and the writers must now figure out how this will affect their hall of fame voting down the road.

We have already seen how the writers have treated the once revered slugger Mark McGwire, who refused to talk about the past during that infamous 2005 congressional hearing on steroids in baseball. McGwire set baseball's single-season home run record in 1998, in addition to hitting 583 career homers, a mark that would have guaranteed him entry before his clumsy appearance in front of lawmakers. Just 23.6 percent of the BBWAA voted for McGwire in his second year of eligibility.

There is some sympathy for McGwire. Hall of Fame third baseman Mike Schmidt said during the HBO broadcast that he might have been in a similar predicament had he played in the steroid era, and that he would like to see McGwire in the fraternity. Schmidt also remarked that the all-time home run leader Barry Bonds, and 350-game winner Roger Clemens will also belong because they enjoyed worthy careers before allegedly turning to enhancers. Schmidt is probably not alone in this regard.

Hall of Fame outfielder Dave Winfield, who also appeared at the meeting, disagreed, stating that he never took steroids or amphetamines and that if he did have a vote, those who did would not make the grade. Fox Sports reporter and BBWAA member Ken Rosenthal offered a voter's point of view, stating that alleged users from the steroid era, such as sluggers Sammy Sosa and Bonds, and Rafael Palmeiro, who tested positive for stanozolol, would be evaluated one at a time, but that the distortion in the era's stats makes it difficult to compare them with Hall of Famers.

Yes, it's complicated, and as players from the steroid era become eligible for entry into the Hall of Fame, voters will face unprecedented pressure to protect the reputation of baseball's holiest ground. Some of the most important decisions in the Hall's esteemed history will have to be made - getting it right will be a grueling process, one with no easy answers.

Guardian News and Media Limited 2007.

12/08/08

Patton: Favre a Jet? Doesn't Feel Right

Did Favre make a mistake coming out of retirement?

You had to know this would end badly.
Just as soon as those noises began leaking up from Mississippi that Brett Favre was thinking about un-retiring, and squeezing himself back into his old spot in Green Bay as if Aaron Rodgers didn't exist, something unsightly would occur.

It has, Favre in a New York Jets jersey.
Nothing against the Jets. Nothing against Favre. He just doesn't belong there.
When commissioner Roger Goodell appoints me commish-for-a-day, I'm going to stipulate a Johnny Unitas-Joe Namath-Joe Montana Rule. That is, if you have a Hall of Fame career as a quarterback with one team and become the face of the franchise, you're prohibited from going to another team to finish your career.

It's too jarring to the senses. Montana in Kansas City? Ugh. Namath in Los Angeles? Aye-yi-yi. Who knows? Favre may make the Jets respectable. He may find himself the toast of the town this fall -- New York's answer to Manny Ramirez-Owns-LA.
But let's face it, every time you see him drop back to pass, or run 30 yards to hug his tight end, or throw up his arms after a touchdown pass, or help an opposing linebacker to his feet, you know you'll say to yourself: "What kind of a world do we live in where Brett Favre is wearing a Jets helmet?"

The NFL doesn't have too many individual stars. It doesn't have a lot of "face of the franchise" types, partly because you can't even see the faces of the participants on the field. When they get them -- Peyton Manning in Indianapolis, LaDainian Tomlinson in San Diego, Tom Brady in New England, they should hold on to them. Check that. They should chain them in place.

This isn't baseball where everyone has individual statistics, and fans have grown accustomed to free agents switching teams like honey bees changing flowers. Movement is taken for granted now, even among baseball's biggest stars. Especially among its biggest stars. It isn't basketball, where the NBA has long marketed its product as if Kobe Bryant plays Allen Iverson on Sunday, Kevin Garnett plays LeBron James on Monday, and Tim Duncan plays Steve Nash on Tuesday.

This is football, the ultimate team sport that requires years of exceptional individual performance and recognition by fans before iconic status is reached. Community adores NFL player? NFL player falls for community? Don't hold your breath. When an athlete and his town bond -- and it's getting rarer -- it's one of sport's great gifts. Favre was the ultimate Packer. A modern legend for a storied franchise. He left the game (we thought) about as well as you can. He had a great year, faltering only in the NFC championship game. Then he finally did what he had been thinking about doing every year for the past several seasons. He said his emotional goodbye. His place in Packers lore had been tied up with the perfect sentimental bow.

Rodgers slipped comfortably into the quarterback job, and everyone moved on.
Except Favre. A few weeks ago he lobbed his comeback bomb over the fence and blew it all up. In Green Bay, there was no middle ground for fans to stand on. Either Favre was being two-faced, selfish and a little bit wacky for not knowing his own mind, or the Packers were being stubborn, cold and a little bit wacky for not accepting him back as their proven QB. There was no good way back in, no good way out. So reality trumped the fairy tale.

"It's a business," said the Jets' new quarterback at his introductory news conference Thursday. "That's the way it works."

Favre can still play. The Jets needed an upgrade at QB. So why not? No reason, other than something special was lost. Every once in a while sports transcends "business" and "self." At they're best, sports can inspire corny stuff like loyalty and togetherness and shared passions. Favre's 16-year career as a Packer had epitomized all of the above.
His move to the Jets does just the opposite. It reminds us of the things we don't like about sports, the overriding notion of self-interest, and the easy displacement of players that undermines a fan's faith.

When they finally met face to face Wednesday, it took Packers management and Favre just one day to realize they had mutually exclusive agendas, and a few hours more for him to switch cities.

"I always wanted to be a Packer. I always will be a Packer," said Favre while holding his new green-and-white No. 4 jersey. "Sixteen years is hard to forget."

2008 Press-Enterprise Company

05/08/08

In what way was Chad Gaudin a 'winning' pitcher Sunday?



Cub reliever Chad Gaudin got credit for the win yesterday in the Cubs 8-5 victory over the Pirates even though:

He faced just three batters in the 8th inning One of them drew a walk, the other hit a two-run homer Of the 17 pitches he threw, 9 of them were balls.He wasn't even still officially in the game anymore when, Reed Johnson, pinch hitting for him (actually, pinch-hitting for Daryle Ward, who was announced as a pinch hitter for Gaudin), hit the homer in the bottom of the 8th that put the Cubs out in front for good.

Cubs starter Carlos Zambrano faced 19 batters, gave up one earned run, and walked only 1. Relief pitcher Jeff Samardzija faced 9 batters, didn't give up a run and also walked only one. Closer Carlos Marmol set down all three batters he faced in the 9th inning; of the 15 pitches he threw, only 3 were balls.But because of the fussy peculiarities of the way baseball statistics are figured, the record books will forever suggest that Gaudin's was the decisive pitching performance Sunday.

Changing how we calculate winning and losing pitchers, either make the process more subjective, as in how errors are determined, or change the algorithm, will never happen, of course. It would throw off more than 100 years of baseball records.
But still, if we were starting from scratch and you were in charge, does this method make the most sense?

Chicagotribune.com

30/07/08

Gossage Takes Place In Hall

Few around baseball today fit the old-timer's favorite saying, 'Son, it wasn't like this in my day,' better than Rich "Goose" Gossage.

At a time when pitch counts and innings limits are more prevalent than ever, it's fitting that Gossage is the headliner at baseball's Hall of Fame induction ceremony this afternoon. In his heyday there were no pitch counts, no innings limits and, above all, no guidelines on how a manager should use his closer. And even though the former Yankee understands why they exist, he still hates it.

"Pitch counts drive me crazy," Gossage, 57, said Saturday. "That's probably why I'm not coaching today."

Gossage's role was to pitch when his team needed to be saved and it never mattered what inning that was. Or how long he was needed to pitch.

"He was one of the most dominant closers for a long time, and he didn't enter in the ninth," George Brett said. "He entered games in the sixth inning. He'd finish the sixth, finish the seventh, finish the eighth and finish the ninth."

Gossage, who will join Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, Dennis Eckersley and Bruce Sutter as those primarily relievers in the Hall of Fame, had 310 saves with a 3.01 ERA during his 22-year career. But he'd rather you pay no attention to his baseball statistics, because times are different. For example, the former Yankees righthander didn't automatically enter the game in the ninth if his team led by three runs. That's why Gossage has tried to distance himself from the top closers of today, guys such as Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman.

"I've always said, 'Please don't compare me to those guys,'" Gossage said.

Gossage hated it when Pirates manager Chuck Tanner sent him to the bullpen in 1977. "In hindsight, it was the best thing that ever happened to me, but at that time you didn't want to be in the bullpen," he said. "The bullpen was a junk pile where old starters went when they couldn't start anymore."

Gossage's career took off that season. He had a 1.62 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 151 strikeouts in 133 innings and those were innings that featured the most critical outs of the game. He never started another game and completed his career in 1994 with the Mariners, his ninth team. He spent six seasons with the Yankees and will have a Yankees hat on his plaque. What made him so effective was a devastating fastball-slider combination, an intimidating demeanor and a herky-jerky guns-blaring delivery.

"Guys were afraid of hitting against him," Dave Winfield said. "When he came out of the bullpen and the manager was looking for someone to hit, guys were like, 'You know what, it's time to go to the restroom,' or, 'I'll get some water.'"

Gossage will be enshrined with his former manger with the Padres, Dick Williams, the late Larry Whiteside, a pioneering black journalist who will receive the J.G. Taylor Spink Award, and Ford C. Frick Award winner Dave Niehaus. Former Dodgers owner Walter O'Malley, former Pirates owner Barney Dreyfuss, former commissioner Bowie Kuhn and former manager Billy Southworth, all deceased, will also be inducted.

"I could never understand why Dick wasn't put into the Hall of Fame earlier," Gossage said. "He didn't have to take a back seat to anyone."

Williams is one of two managers to reach the World Series with three teams, the 1967 Red Sox, the 1972-73 A's and the '84 Padres. Williams has title rings from the Oakland teams and will wear an A's cap on his plaque. Much of Whiteside's 30-year career was as a beat writer covering the Red Sox. He joined The Boston Globe in 1973 and in 1980 became the first African-American Hall of Fame voter.

Copyright 2008, The Hartford Courant.

29/06/08

WHEN IT COMES TO NUMBERS, YOU CAN COUNT ON BASEBALL


I've never been a math guy. Not my strong suit. I have difficulty balancing a checkbook. I leave that to my lovely wife. I have a hard time covering stories about municipal budgets or salary increases that are figured out by percentages. Just tell me how much more a year the teachers are making. Proposition 2 1/2 and tax levies? Foreclosures? Prime interest rates? Forget it. It takes me forever to figure it out. Seems I always run out of fingers and toes. How is it then, that when it comes to sports, I can give you batting averages from the 1960s? I can tell you the last Triple Crown winner in Major League Baseball was Carl Yastrzemski, who, in 1967, batted .326, hit 44 homeruns and knocked in 121 runs. I can tell you the numbers 3,000 and 400 are significant in baseball if you are a hitter. That number is 300 if you're a pitcher.


More than any other sport, baseball statistics are something young boys can talk about with each other until they're old men. Ted Williams always will be associated with .406, and 56 will always mean Joe DiMaggio. Babe Ruth, best known for his bat, won 47 games as a pitcher in the two-year period of 1916 and 1917. His career winning percentage (.671) is among the top 15 in baseball history. Nolan Ryan won 71 games after he turned 40. In his first six seasons in the majors, Randy Johnson had a 49-48 record. In the next 10 seasons, he won 175 games and lost only 58. I love this stuff. In a lot of cases, these numbers have been committed to memory. Not that I studied them. They just seem to get up there in my head and stay there.


Oh, if only I could do that with stock averages. My love for baseball numbers, you can't really do this with football, I mean, who knows Tom Brady's career completion percentage is something that possessed me at a young age. I remember sitting at the breakfast table eating cereal and reading the box scores in the Boston Globe. I remember sitting for hours with a box of baseball cards, just looking at the players' career stats on the back of the card. In his book, Is This a Great Game, Or What?, sportswriter Tim Kurkjian devotes an entire chapter to baseball statistics. He speaks of the Elias Sports Bureau, a staff of about two dozen self-admitted numbers geeks who track this stuff for a living. The Hirdt brothers, Steve, Peter and Tom, work there. So does Steve's son, Ken. They are the ultimate number geeks.


"We are the only family when our mother would scold us and say, 'How many times have I told you boys?' we could tell her how many times," Steve said in the book. For me, working at Elias would be THE DREAM JOB. My sentences would all begin with "It was the first time in history that..."


When Coco Crisp made a fantastic catch in center field with men on to end the inning a week or so ago and then led off the bottom half, I wanted to know how often that happens. I called Elias. Someone named Dave told me that there is no way to quantify that statistic because it's difficult to determine what constitutes a fantastic play. If I cared to wait, they could tell me the percentage of the times a batter leads off an inning after making the third out, but many of those third outs are routine. For example, in the National League, where pitchers hit, it is often the case where the pitcher leads off an inning after striking out the previous batter. How many times has a first baseman made an unassisted put out to end an inning and then batted lead off in the next frame?


But Elias can tell you stuff like most hits in one inning; Johnny Damon on June 27, 2003, playing for the Red Sox, had three hits in the first inning, a triple, a double and a single. Yeah, but did they win? Back to Elias. The Sox beat the Florida Marlins in an Interleague game, 25-8. Damon was 5-for-7. The Boston Red Sox scored 14 runs in that inning, and 10 runs before a single out was recorded. Oh. Where was the game played? Fenway Park, said Dave. "Want to know the attendance?" The Society for American Baseball Research is also another great resource. They have stuff like who hit the most pinch-hit, extra-inning grand slams. And if all else fails, I can turn to the best resource I know. He's just a few desks away. Sun sportswriter Chaz Scoggins.


1999-2007 MediaNews Group, Inc.

20/06/08

Campillo finds home in Atlanta

The distance between Jorge Campillo's hometown of Tijuana, Mexico, and the United States is just one step across the border, but until the 2008 season it marked the difference between happiness and regret for the Braves pitcher. When does a childhood dream become an adult nightmare? When do you give up on Major League Baseball and more importantly, when has Major League Baseball given up on you? Campillo spent sleepless nights over the offseason asking himself those very questions.


The answer is one he has grown to accept and Atlanta come to appreciate. There is no way Campillo is giving up, not this year. Mexico can wait another year for one of its favorite baseball sons to return home to play. Campillo, 29, is 2-1 with a 2.78 ERA with 28 strikeouts in six starts for the Braves this season. Overall, he sports a 2.17 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 20 games in 2008. The right-hander was called up from Triple-A in April and made his first 13 appearances out of the bullpen.


"This is a dream for all of my family, but now the stakes are higher," Campillo said. "Before it was just to get here, but now it's to stay here for a long time. You never relax in this game."


Campillo's next chance will come today. He is scheduled to start against Seattle, the team that signed him out of Mexico in 2005.


"From Day 1 since he joined us, he's been just amazing," Braves manager Bobby Cox said. "He started in the bullpen and was fantastic, and every start he has made has been fantastic. He's got tremendous control. He's one of our top dogs."


Campillo's repertoire is made up of a curveball, slider, cut fastball and changeup. Far from overpowering, his fastball hovers in the 86- to 88-mph range, but his sneaky delivery can be deceptive. He has appeared in only 28 Major League games in his career, but has been pitching professionally in Mexico since 1998. "He knows how to pitch and he's faced all kind of guys in the Minor Leagues, Mexican Leagues and the big leagues," Braves catcher Corky Miller said. "He has faced different types of hitters, different styles of hitters and he has an idea of how to get those types of players out. It's not necessarily about getting the individual out as much as getting that kind of guy out and what they are looking for."


Campillo's biggest asset could be his perseverance. His courage ranks a close second. Already a household name in Mexico, the pitcher was discovered by Mariners scouts after pitching in the 2005 Caribbean Series for Mexico and quickly signed with the team. His progress in the Seattle system slowed to a snail's pace. He made one appearance with the Mariners upon his promotion from Triple-A Tacoma in August 2005, but missed the remainder of the season with a strained elbow. The strain led to Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery, forcing him to miss most of the 2006 season. Upon his return, he allowed four runs in 2 1/3 innings in his only appearance of 2006.


Campillo's baseball statistics were not pretty and the numbers in his life, two years in the United States, one surgery, one child and a Minor League salary, weighed heavily on him. He had been a star in Mexico and life back home was good. Up to that point, his life in the United States was a disaster. "You get to a certain level in Mexico and you can make about USD 10,000 a month," Campillo said. "That's a good life in a country that loves baseball. But you don't have the benefits or retirement plans you get here. Over there, once you are finished, you are finished. They don't want anything to do with you. You have to start a business or something to get by. I wanted to try again."


In 2007, Campillo pitched only 13 1/3 innings for the Mariners and struggled with a 6.75 ERA on the big league level. In the Minors, he led Triple-A's Pacific Coast League in ERA, but was still taken off the roster by the Mariners at the end of the season.  "I don't know what happened in Seattle, but I appreciate what they did by signing me," Campillo said. "They gave me the opportunity and I can't forget that. I got hurt and the guys behind me passed me. I don't know if I was not their plans or if it was because I don't throw hard. I never knew what happened, but I know I was not able to do in the Major Leagues what they thought I would."


Without a job, Campillo returned to Mexico and planned out his future. Married and now the father of two young children, he made up his mind to go back to playing in Mexico on a full-time basis. The Major League dream was not worth the heartache anymore and he knew Mexico would welcome him with open arms.


"At what point is the sacrifice too much? This is my dream, but what am I doing to my family?" Campillo said. "Hey, if I am single I can do whatever I want, but I have to think of my family. After Seattle, I told my wife we are going back. This is too hard on us. I don't like what I am doing to our family. I am losing money playing here, the kids are missing school, I'm wasting the best years of my life trying to get somewhere that I might not get to because the teams don't want me. She said to give it one more chance."


The Braves called. Campillo took his wife's advice and he signed before the start of the season. He's never been happier. "I was happy in Mexico, but when you watch Major League Baseball on television you wonder if you can play there," he said. "Atlanta games are always on television, so you think about that -- [Greg] Maddux, [Tom] Glavine and playing on these fields. I am happy now. I just want to help the team win."


2001-2008 MLB Advanced Media, L.P. All rights reserved.

12/06/08

Fantasy players can obsess away

Fantasy league baseball players can continue to use sports stats available every morning in the Erie Times-News and GoErie.com. Major League Baseball wanted to corner the market on those statistics. The U.S. Supreme Court wisely took a pass Monday on hearing an appeal from Major League Baseball that claimed all baseball statistics from home runs to runs scored can't be used in office fantasy leagues.


Fantasy geeks, the term of endearment for the scores of mostly American men who devote endless hours to playing fantasy baseball and football, are safe to keep obsessing, free of Major League Baseball's obnoxious scrutiny. The justices made no comment in turning down the case, which was an appeal of a ruling in October by the federal appeals court in St. Louis. That appeals court found that the First Amendment's guarantee of free speech outweighed the "right of publicity." In a bizarre argument, team owners and the players union had claimed a "right to publicity," contending that players' names and statistics couldn't be used commercially without permission.


Major League Baseball wasn't trying to stop the guy in the next cubicle from running a fantasy league during lunch breaks. You know that drill. League members draft and build teams of actual major league players. Then they use player statistics to play fantasy baseball, while they annoy co-workers with endless fantasy babble. Major League Baseball wants a piece of the expanding corporate fantasy baseball business,which produces an estimated USD 1.5 billion in revenues a year. One of those leagues, St. Louis-based CBC Distribution and Marketing, filed a preemptive lawsuit in 2005 after Major League Baseball created its own Internet company, Major League Baseball Advanced Media, to operate fantasy games on MLB.com.


CBC successfully argued that the identity of major league ballplayers and information about their performances were obviously in the public domain and could not be blocked without violating the First Amendment. The Federal District Court in St. Louis and the United States Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit agreed. You could almost hear the nine Supreme Court justices sigh when they bounced Major League Baseball's appeal. From the National Football League's Spygate to Major League Baseball's performance-enhancing drug scandals, sports venues frequently rely on lawyers and trials to settle disputes. The Supreme Court finally said enough.


Copyright 2008 CyberInk LP